Morning issues

Zero misses on the whole record, and the stock still swings 6% when it prints

This is the morning issue of Thursday, August 20, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the earnings watchlist.

Best of the day: Aug 20

Five of these six spend next week just trading. Salesforce spends Wednesday night reporting, right in the middle of the window, and its print day carries a 4.9% median swing in either direction. For CRM this stops being a calendar trade the moment the tape opens Thursday.

HMY has the strongest typical showing for Aug 20 in our universe since 2001: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.85% (average +1.84%). Best year +9.1% (2019); worst -3.5% (2012).

CYTK has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 20 in our universe since 2004: up 17 of 22 years (77%), with a median move of +2.79% (average +3.89%). Best year +23.0% (2004); worst -8.9% (2005).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Aug 21 – Aug 27, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
CYTK	77%	+2.79%	22 yrs
SCCO	77%	+2.57%	26 yrs
AG	79%	+2.56%	19 yrs
NTAP	81%	+2.32%	26 yrs
KTOS	81%	+2.11%	26 yrs
CRM	77%	+2.04%	22 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Key levels, 19 August 2026

Two names came to their 52-week highs on Wednesday and went opposite ways: FTI got knocked back from its, TGT went straight through. Target has been the cleanest thing on this board all month — it took out $150 on the 10th and the five sessions after that were worth 8.38%.

RBC broke below a swing low at $545.51 (closed -4.6% through it).

Across 102,145 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
AXTI	Broke below round number	$80.00	-8.2%
STLD	Broke below round number	$250.00	-7.6%
FTI	Got rejected at 52-week high	$80.42
GLXY	Bounced off round number	$20.00
TGT	Bounced off round number	$150.00
SNDK	Got rejected at round number	$1700.00

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Accelerating & decelerating, 19 August 2026

Nucor is the only name on the accelerating side pointed down, and the line it lost on Wednesday was $250 — the same round number STLD broke in the same session. When two steel names give up the identical level on the same day, that's a group moving, not a stock.

Speeding up

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
MRK	2.13×	$152.20	+14.5%
EL	2.03×	$98.01	+11.8%
UGI	1.88×	$38.55	+9.8%
NUE	1.87×	$248.74	-8.5%
HTHT	1.75×	$48.59	+17.8%

When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.

Slowing down

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
MKTX	0.11×	$161.74	0.0%
TECH	0.35×	$72.48	+0.3%
APP	0.51×	$310.79	+2.3%
GOOG	0.56×	$341.70	-0.2%
ERIC	0.56×	$10.15	-0.3%

When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.

Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.

Earnings watchlist, 20 August 2026

CrowdStrike has never handed the market a miss on this record, and the print still moves the stock 6% at the median. Whatever gets decided on Wednesday night, the beat isn't it.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
NVDA	Wed Aug 26	after close	$5.45T
Median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss
WMT	Thu Aug 20	before open	$917B
Median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
BABA	Thu Aug 20	before open	$297B
Median swing ±4.0% over 47 reports; typically -0.7% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss
CRWD	Wed Aug 26	after close	$221B
Median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports
DE	Thu Aug 20	before open	$165B
Median swing ±3.8% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -2.2% on a miss
CRM	Wed Aug 26	after close	$162B
Median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss
BMO	Tue Aug 25	before open	$130B
Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
PDD	Mon Aug 24	time not announced	$121B
Median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss
BNS	Tue Aug 25	before open	$112B
Median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss
INTU	Tue Aug 25	after close	$94.6B
Median swing ±3.8% over 107 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -0.2% on a miss