Morning issues

It has never missed a quarter, and it still moves twice as hard as Nvidia

This is the morning issue of Saturday, August 22, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held and the earnings watchlist.

Overbought / oversold, 20 August 2026

Same tag on all three names, and their own histories underneath it disagree completely. RBC is the one that has actually paid for being washed out, averaging about +3.9% twenty days after tags like this, and it's a winner in our quality book. CX gets beaten up like this constantly and twenty days on it has still, on average, been lower; cheap was never the catalyst.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
A	Extreme overbought	100th	$156.30	+4.7%
CPRT	Extreme overbought	100th	$34.33	+16.8%
MORN	Extreme overbought	100th	$217.49	+5.1%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CX	Extreme oversold	0th	$10.60	-4.3%
RBC	Extreme oversold	0th	$504.61	-9.0%
TJX	Extreme oversold	0th	$140.69	-8.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
RBC	61% · +0.6%	61% · +0.9%	66% · +3.9%	393
It did tend to bounce — higher 63% of the time on average across the three windows
TJX	56% · +0.3%	61% · +0.7%	62% · +1.8%	453
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
MORN	60% · +0.4%	55% · +0.4%	52% · +0.0%	340
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
A	53% · +0.1%	53% · +0.2%	59% · +1.3%	494
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CPRT	50% · +0.0%	53% · +0.0%	56% · +0.0%	448
It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CX	50% · -0.3%	49% · -0.5%	47% · -0.7%	467
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: MORN, A, CPRT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Best of the day: Aug 22

Today's own date came up with nothing worth handing you, so the card steps forward into the week that starts tomorrow, and it reads like an energy screen: refining, oil sands, uranium, Australian gas. Energy is also one of only two sectors beating SPY over the last month, which is a nice coincidence. The odd name out is Cytokinetics, a biotech with the best median of the group whose worst trip through this week since 2004 happened last year.

CYTK has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 22 in our universe since 2004: up 17 of 22 years (77%), with a median move of +4.33% (average +4.24%). Best year +23.0% (2004); worst -7.9% (2025).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Aug 23 – Aug 29, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
CYTK	77%	+4.33%	22 yrs
MPC	87%	+3.60%	15 yrs
CVE	81%	+3.25%	16 yrs
UEC	79%	+3.08%	19 yrs
WDS	84%	+2.82%	19 yrs
NTAP	81%	+2.57%	26 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Key levels, 20 August 2026

The one worth staring at is CF, turned away at its swing high on Thursday. A rejection is supposed to be the bad news, and for CF it hasn't been: five days after these, it has been higher about two-thirds of the time with a median of +2.56%, well ahead of what the average rejection across the whole database delivers. It also broke down through $120 last week and promptly rallied instead, so the levels keep firing backwards on this one.

CW broke below a swing low at $670.29 (closed -3.3% through it).

Across 102,156 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
KTOS	Broke below round number	$60.00	-6.4%
AVAV	Broke below round number	$170.00	-6.0%
ENSG	Got rejected at swing high	$186.00
CF	Got rejected at swing high	$129.39
VRT	Bounced off volume shelf	$254.68
GPC	Bounced off volume shelf	$129.02

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Earnings watchlist, 22 August 2026

CrowdStrike has never missed a quarter in its life as a public company, and print day still swings it 6%, double what Nvidia does on the very same night. Whatever the market is trading after these reports, it stopped being the beat a long time ago. Nvidia's own line is the quieter shock: on the quarters it did miss, the median reaction was nothing at all.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
NVDA	Wed Aug 26	after close	$5.45T
Median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss
RY	Thu Aug 27	before open	$301B
Median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss
CRWD	Wed Aug 26	after close	$221B
Median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports
TD	Thu Aug 27	before open	$205B
Median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss
MRVL	Thu Aug 27	after close	$199B
Median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
CRM	Wed Aug 26	after close	$162B
Median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss
BMO	Tue Aug 25	before open	$130B
Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
PDD	Mon Aug 24	time not announced	$121B
Median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss
CM	Thu Aug 27	before open	$113B
Median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss
BNS	Tue Aug 25	before open	$112B
Median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss