Morning issues

One name reporting this week has never missed a quarter. It barely gets paid for it.

This is the morning issue of Sunday, August 23, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held and the earnings watchlist.

Best of the day: Aug 23

Today itself came up empty, and the week starting tomorrow is where everything is hiding. What I like about the five names that own it is that they have nothing to do with each other: a refiner, a manufactured-housing builder, a biotech, an airline and a defense contractor. That's the shape of an actual calendar effect rather than one hot sector wearing a date's clothes, and the refiner has never given back more than 3.7% in this stretch.

MPC has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 23 in our universe since 2011: up 13 of 15 years (87%), with a median move of +2.84% (average +2.33%). Best year +6.7% (2019); worst -3.6% (2013).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Aug 24 – Aug 30, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
MPC	87%	+2.84%	15 yrs
SKY	77%	+2.51%	26 yrs
HALO	77%	+2.31%	22 yrs
AAL	80%	+1.82%	20 yrs
LDOS	79%	+1.79%	19 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Overbought / oversold, 21 August 2026

Two of the three washed-out names are utilities, which makes this less a stock story than a sector one: XLU is running eleven points behind SPY over the last month, dead last on the board and not close. TJX is the odd one out, a retailer that fell apart on its own schedule while its group did nothing of the kind.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
AU	Extreme overbought	100th	$121.22	+27.2%
A	Extreme overbought	100th	$159.00	+7.0%
SEIC	Extreme overbought	100th	$109.53	+3.0%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
NI	Extreme oversold	0th	$40.62	-4.4%
TJX	Extreme oversold	0th	$140.53	-7.6%
PEG	Extreme oversold	0th	$72.61	-4.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
NI	58% · +0.5%	60% · +0.7%	61% · +1.7%	473
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
TJX	56% · +0.3%	61% · +0.7%	62% · +1.8%	453
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
SEIC	54% · -0.1%	56% · +0.1%	58% · +0.7%	478
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
PEG	53% · +0.0%	55% · +0.1%	59% · +0.8%	502
It did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows
A	53% · +0.1%	53% · +0.2%	59% · +1.3%	494
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
AU	51% · +0.3%	50% · +0.6%	51% · +1.1%	492
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: SEIC, A are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 21 August 2026

The one I'd stare at is HL, turned away at its swing high on Thursday two days after it took out $20 outright. Every other time this stock has been rejected at a swing high it has gone on to run about 2.4% higher over the next week, which is roughly ten times what a rejection is worth on average across everything else. In HL a rejection has mostly meant a pause.

XEL broke below its volume shelf at $79.04 (closed -3.5% through it).

Across 51,813 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
BABA	Broke below round number	$130.00	-8.2%
MRVL	Broke below round number	$250.00	-5.2%
EQIX	Got rejected at swing high	$1099.72
HL	Got rejected at swing high	$21.29
APA	Got rejected at 52-week high	$45.05
FRO	Got rejected at 52-week high	$45.17

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Earnings watchlist, 23 August 2026

CrowdStrike has never missed a quarter in its entire life as a public company, and the typical reward for that is a move of +0.6% on the day. The stock swings 6% on these prints, so whatever is moving it, the beat isn't it.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
NVDA	Wed Aug 26	after close	$5.45T
Median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss
RY	Thu Aug 27	before open	$301B
Median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss
CRWD	Wed Aug 26	after close	$221B
Median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports
TD	Thu Aug 27	before open	$205B
Median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss
MRVL	Thu Aug 27	after close	$199B
Median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
CRM	Wed Aug 26	after close	$162B
Median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss
BMO	Tue Aug 25	before open	$130B
Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
PDD	Mon Aug 24	time not announced	$121B
Median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss
CM	Thu Aug 27	before open	$113B
Median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss
BNS	Tue Aug 25	before open	$112B
Median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss