Morning issues

A miss here has historically cost exactly nothing, and it prints Wednesday night

This is the morning issue of Monday, August 24, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held and the earnings watchlist.

Best of the day: Aug 24

Three names have a standout record for the last week of August, and the biotech is the one with the strange shape. HALO's worst trip through Aug 25–31 since 2004 cost 4.48%, which is a remarkably polite bad year for a company that can move 17% in a week, and not one of those years had an earnings report sitting inside the window. That makes it a calendar record rather than a print reaction wearing a calendar costume.

VLO has the strongest typical showing for Aug 24 in our universe since 2000: up 16 of 18 years (89%), with a median move of +1.70% (average +1.33%). Best year +5.0% (2015); worst -3.7% (2000).

AVGO has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 24 in our universe since 2009: up 13 of 17 years (76%), with a median move of +3.11% (average +2.55%). Best year +10.4% (2015); worst -6.4% (2022).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Aug 25 – Aug 31, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
AVGO	76%	+3.11%	17 yrs
HALO	77%	+2.58%	22 yrs
SIMO	76%	+1.78%	21 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Overbought / oversold, 21 August 2026

AU didn't drift into overbought, it sprinted: up 27.2% in five sessions to the most stretched reading on the board. What's funny is how little that buys you. From readings like that, the next week has been a coin flip for it, and the beaten-up utility a few rows down carries the better forward record of the two.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
AU	Extreme overbought	100th	$121.22	+27.2%
A	Extreme overbought	100th	$159.00	+7.0%
SEIC	Extreme overbought	100th	$109.53	+3.0%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
NI	Extreme oversold	0th	$40.62	-4.4%
TJX	Extreme oversold	0th	$140.53	-7.6%
PEG	Extreme oversold	0th	$72.61	-4.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
NI	58% · +0.5%	60% · +0.7%	61% · +1.7%	473
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
TJX	56% · +0.3%	61% · +0.7%	62% · +1.8%	453
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
SEIC	54% · -0.1%	56% · +0.1%	58% · +0.7%	478
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
PEG	53% · +0.0%	55% · +0.1%	59% · +0.8%	502
It did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows
A	53% · +0.1%	53% · +0.2%	59% · +1.3%	494
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
AU	51% · +0.3%	50% · +0.6%	51% · +1.1%	492
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: SEIC, A are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 21 August 2026

The line worth staring at is HL. Getting knocked back from a swing high reads like a warning, and HL's own history has been the opposite: five days after those rejections it sat up 2.39% at the median, the best forward record anywhere on this card and the wrong direction for a warning sign. Worth noting MRVL lost the 250 round the same session and reports Thursday night, so that level gets re-tested by the print rather than by the tape.

XEL broke below its volume shelf at $79.04 (closed -3.5% through it).

Across 51,813 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
BABA	Broke below round number	$130.00	-8.2%
MRVL	Broke below round number	$250.00	-5.2%
EQIX	Got rejected at swing high	$1099.72
HL	Got rejected at swing high	$21.29
APA	Got rejected at 52-week high	$45.05
FRO	Got rejected at 52-week high	$45.17

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Earnings watchlist, 24 August 2026

Everyone is pointed at Wednesday night. The part of NVDA's record that nobody brings up is what has happened on the misses: the median move on those days is exactly 0.0%, so the disaster scenario has historically been a shrug. PDD, which printed this morning, is the opposite animal entirely and gives back double digits when it comes up short.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
NVDA	Wed Aug 26	after close	$5.45T
Median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss
RY	Thu Aug 27	before open	$301B
Median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss
CRWD	Wed Aug 26	after close	$221B
Median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports
TD	Thu Aug 27	before open	$205B
Median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss
MRVL	Thu Aug 27	after close	$199B
Median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
CRM	Wed Aug 26	after close	$162B
Median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss
BMO	Tue Aug 25	before open	$130B
Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
PDD	Mon Aug 24	before open	$121B
Median swing ±13.6% over 32 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -10.5% on a miss
CM	Thu Aug 27	before open	$113B
Median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss
BNS	Tue Aug 25	before open	$112B
Median swing ±1.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.4% on a miss