The whole week hangs on one report after today's close, and its bad quarters have been a rounding error
This is the morning issue of Wednesday, August 26, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the earnings watchlist and the stocks speeding up and slowing down.
Overbought / oversold, 24 August 2026
DLB is the odd row here: after readings this extended it has historically done nothing at all, up about as often as down whether you look three days out or twenty. That makes more sense once you remember the reading is scored against the stock's own trailing year, and DLB has managed exactly one winning year out of the last ten, so "extended" for this one mostly means "the best it has looked in a while" rather than stretched.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEIC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $110.75 | +5.0% |
| TGT | Extreme overbought | 100th | $169.89 | +12.5% |
| DLB | Extreme overbought | 100th | $66.05 | +7.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUS | Extreme oversold | 0th | $111.64 | -6.9% |
| RBC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $495.90 | -11.1% |
| AROC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $30.70 | -11.3% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | 61% · +0.6% | 61% · +0.9% | 66% · +3.9% | 394 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 63% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| AROC | 57% · +0.8% | 57% · +1.0% | 57% · +2.8% | 197 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 57% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SEIC | 54% · -0.1% | 56% · +0.1% | 58% · +0.8% | 479 |
| It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CRUS | 55% · +0.6% | 53% · +0.7% | 52% · +1.8% | 488 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| TGT | 47% · -0.1% | 55% · +0.2% | 57% · +1.3% | 493 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| DLB | 49% · -0.1% | 47% · -0.1% | 46% · -0.6% | 360 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SEIC, TGT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Key levels, 24 August 2026
FRHC is the one to pull up. It broke up through $150 on the 18th and was breaking back down through $170 inside a week, so the entire run got handed back in four sessions, which makes this a break out of a spent rally rather than a slow bleed. Its own history with busted round numbers leans the other way: seventy prior instances, a median of about +2.1% over the next week, against the roughly +0.4% an average name in the database puts up after the same event.
BWXT broke below a swing low at $156.84 (closed -4.7% through it).
Across 102,168 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| WWD | Broke below swing low | $343.64 | -3.1% |
| FRHC | Broke below round number | $170.00 | -7.4% |
| AVAV | Broke below round number | $160.00 | -7.4% |
| AOS | Got rejected at swing high | $64.38 | |
| BCPC | Got rejected at 52-week high | $183.90 | |
| LRCX | Bounced off round number | $300.00 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Earnings watchlist, 26 August 2026
NVDA reports after the close today, and the strange part of its record is what happens on the bad quarters: the median move on a miss is 0.0%. Flat. Run your eye down that column at DELL and MDT to see what an actual punishment looks like.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Ticker | Reports | When | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Wed Aug 26 | after close | $5.45T |
| Median swing ±3.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.9% on a beat, 0.0% on a miss | |||
| DELL | Tue Sep 1 | after close | $317B |
| Median swing ±6.4% over 30 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -7.8% on a miss | |||
| PANW | Tue Sep 1 | after close | $313B |
| Median swing ±6.2% over 56 reports; typically +3.6% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss | |||
| RY | Thu Aug 27 | before open | $301B |
| Median swing ±1.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -1.7% on a miss | |||
| CRWD | Wed Aug 26 | after close | $221B |
| Median swing ±6.0% over 29 reports | |||
| TD | Thu Aug 27 | before open | $205B |
| Median swing ±1.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -1.0% on a miss | |||
| MRVL | Thu Aug 27 | after close | $199B |
| Median swing ±5.5% over 104 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss | |||
| CRM | Wed Aug 26 | after close | $162B |
| Median swing ±4.9% over 88 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -3.7% on a miss | |||
| MDT | Tue Sep 1 | before open | $116B |
| Median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -6.4% on a miss | |||
| CM | Thu Aug 27 | before open | $113B |
| Median swing ±2.1% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -2.6% on a miss | |||
Accelerating & decelerating, 24 August 2026
Accelerating means the daily range has blown out, and it is blind to direction: STLD and NUE are both moving fast downhill, roughly a tenth of their price gone in five sessions, while materials as a group is still running ahead of SPY over the last month. Steel is the piece of a winning sector that's coming apart, and the range noticed before the sector return did.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTES | 1.57× | $122.96 | -1.2% |
| MGA | 1.55× | $67.80 | -4.9% |
| STLD | 1.52× | $229.27 | -11.2% |
| NUE | 1.51× | $244.64 | -10.3% |
| FCFS | 1.50× | $236.43 | +9.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.14× | $162.46 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.25× | $72.39 | +0.1% |
| ERIC | 0.45× | $10.16 | -0.1% |
| APP | 0.47× | $298.59 | -4.3% |
| CHRW | 0.54× | $142.86 | -1.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
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