Morning issues

Six insiders bought nearly $4 million of one stock this summer, and it reports Wednesday night

This is the morning issue of Friday, August 28, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held and the earnings watchlist.

Overbought / oversold, 26 August 2026

On the beaten-up side, TJX is the one worth a second look: of the three washed-out names it is the only one whose bounce historically was still there a month later. CRUS and DY are coin flips wearing an alarming label. And the top of the stretched list is noise, because BMNR has been this extended exactly four times in its life, which is an anecdote with a percent sign on it.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
BMNR	Extreme overbought	100th	$24.91	+23.1%
EL	Extreme overbought	100th	$105.06	+7.2%
MKTX	Extreme overbought	99th	$162.52	+0.5%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CRUS	Extreme oversold	0th	$110.34	-6.5%
TJX	Extreme oversold	0th	$136.83	-5.3%
DY	Extreme oversold	0th	$310.91	-22.8%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
BMNR	50% · -1.7%	50% · +0.1%	100% · +16.9%	4
It kept going — higher 67% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
TJX	56% · +0.3%	61% · +0.7%	62% · +1.8%	453
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
MKTX	54% · +0.3%	51% · +0.1%	62% · +1.4%	373
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CRUS	55% · +0.6%	53% · +0.7%	52% · +1.7%	489
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
DY	51% · +0.3%	53% · +0.5%	55% · +2.5%	437
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
EL	47% · -0.2%	51% · -0.0%	53% · +0.3%	478
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: BMNR, MKTX are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Best of the day: Aug 28

COHR owns Aug 28 the modest way, with small dull wins around a percent and a worst showing on the date that never got past 1.7%. What is behind it is emptier: not one name cleared the floor for the five sessions after today, mostly hit rates stuck in the sixties, so on the calendar side this is the last clean date for a while.

COHR has the strongest typical showing for Aug 28 in our universe since 2000: up 16 of 19 years (84%), with a median move of +1.20% (average +1.74%). Best year +7.5% (2000); worst -1.7% (2007).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Aug 29 – Sep 4, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
PODD	84%	+2.18%	19 yrs
MMYT	81%	+1.47%	16 yrs
COR	81%	+1.43%	26 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Key levels, 26 August 2026

DY had a genuinely bad week, five levels gone in four sessions, finishing nearly 10% under the volume shelf it lost on Wednesday. Its own history after breaking a shelf is the best forward record on this list, several times what the average name does after losing a level, and the same DY sits on today's beaten-up table as a pure coin flip. Both readings are in this issue because both are true, and the version I'd hold is that the bounce turns up more often than not without ever being big.

DY broke below its volume shelf at $343.78 (closed -9.6% through it).

Across 51,865 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
AEM	Broke below round number	$225.00	-4.9%
VNO	Broke below round number	$40.00	-2.6%
CCJ	Got rejected at swing high	$111.49
LYV	Got rejected at swing high	$188.00
DKS	Bounced off round number	$120.00
WSM	Bounced off round number	$225.00

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Earnings watchlist, 28 August 2026

HPE is the one I'd watch: six insiders picked up nearly $4 million of stock this summer, the largest dollar cluster on our insider board right now, and two of the buyers run businesses rather than sit on the board collecting stock in place of fees. It reports Wednesday night into a history where a beat has been worth almost nothing and a miss has cost double digits. One footnote on the card: AVGO's miss column is a single quarter out of sixty-eight, and the stock went up that day, so treat it as trivia rather than a scenario.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
AVGO	Wed Sep 2	after close	$1.87T
Median swing ±3.5% over 68 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, +7.1% on a miss
DELL	Tue Sep 1	after close	$317B
Median swing ±6.4% over 30 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -7.8% on a miss
PANW	Tue Sep 1	after close	$313B
Median swing ±6.2% over 56 reports; typically +3.6% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss
MDT	Tue Sep 1	before open	$116B
Median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -6.4% on a miss
SNOW	Wed Sep 2	after close	$114B
Median swing ±11.4% over 23 reports; typically +4.4% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss
HPE	Wed Sep 2	after close	$77.7B
Median swing ±3.4% over 43 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -11.5% on a miss
CIEN	Thu Sep 3	before open	$60.7B
Median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
NTAP	Wed Sep 2	after close	$40.6B
Median swing ±5.2% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -7.3% on a miss
CPRT	Thu Sep 3	time not announced	$30.5B
Median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
LULU	Thu Sep 3	after close	$13.6B
Median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss