Morning issues

Its own insiders bought all summer. A beat has been worth 0.7%.

This is the morning issue of Monday, August 31, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the names with the best record for the days ahead and the earnings watchlist.

Overbought / oversold, 28 August 2026

Being stretched to the upside has historically been worth exactly 0.00% over the following week, while the washed-out side quietly pays you something. CRM is the one worth staring at either way, because it didn't drift into this reading, it sprinted there, and it did it as a stock that has spent most of the last decade losing ground.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
SEIC	Extreme overbought	100th	$111.63	+1.9%
CRM	Extreme overbought	100th	$256.00	+22.4%
TYL	Extreme overbought	100th	$377.94	+7.8%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CRUS	Extreme oversold	0th	$108.48	-5.9%
DY	Extreme oversold	0th	$294.34	-25.1%
FER	Extreme oversold	0th	$58.73	-6.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
FER	56% · +1.0%	69% · +1.7%	69% · +4.4%	39
It did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows
SEIC	54% · -0.1%	56% · +0.1%	59% · +0.8%	480
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
TYL	50% · -0.1%	53% · +0.2%	59% · +2.0%	491
It kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CRUS	55% · +0.6%	53% · +0.7%	52% · +1.7%	490
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
DY	51% · +0.3%	53% · +0.5%	55% · +2.5%	437
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
CRM	43% · -0.4%	49% · -0.2%	57% · +0.8%	389
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: SEIC, TYL are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 28 August 2026

Most of this board is the metals complex getting turned away rather than through: silver, gold and copper all hit a wall on the same session. PAAS is the one that actually gave way, and it's the only line here whose own history after losing that shelf has been meaningfully worse than what the same break does to everything else. Materials had already slipped behind the index over the past month, so Friday was not the first hint.

PAAS broke below its volume shelf at $55.15 (closed -4.1% through it).

Across 51,906 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
FORM	Broke below round number	$110.00	-7.6%
CIEN	Broke below round number	$400.00	-5.4%
PCG	Got rejected at swing high	$18.44
BVN	Got rejected at swing high	$36.82
SSRM	Got rejected at 52-week high	$39.42
TECK	Got rejected at 52-week high	$71.93

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Best of the day: Aug 31

Two miners back to back: today's strongest record belongs to a silver name, and the only name clearing the bar for the first week of September pulls iron ore out of Brazil. VALE lives as a coin flip, five up years and five down over the last decade, which is what makes one specific week of its calendar behaving otherwise interesting, especially with the rest of the complex getting rejected at its highs on Friday.

HL has the strongest typical showing for Aug 31 in our universe since 2000: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +1.71% (average +1.83%). Best year +7.7% (2000); worst -2.2% (2011).

ULTA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Aug 31 in our universe since 2008: up 14 of 18 years (78%), with a median move of +4.23% (average +6.10%). Best year +29.5% (2009); worst -3.4% (2021).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Sep 1 – Sep 7, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
VALE	79%	+2.08%	24 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Earnings watchlist, 31 August 2026

HPE's own people have been buying stock since the start of June, and they're standing in front of the ugliest downside on this card: a miss has knocked 11.5% off the stock on the day, while a beat barely moves it. No reward for good news and real punishment for bad is usually the market telling you it has already made up its mind about a name.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
AVGO	Wed Sep 2	after close	$1.87T
Median swing ±3.5% over 68 reports; typically +1.5% on a beat, +7.1% on a miss
DELL	Tue Sep 1	after close	$317B
Median swing ±6.4% over 30 reports; typically +3.5% on a beat, -7.8% on a miss
PANW	Tue Sep 1	after close	$313B
Median swing ±6.2% over 56 reports; typically +3.6% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss
MDT	Tue Sep 1	before open	$116B
Median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.4% on a beat, -6.4% on a miss
SNOW	Wed Sep 2	after close	$114B
Median swing ±11.4% over 23 reports; typically +4.4% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss
HPE	Wed Sep 2	after close	$77.7B
Median swing ±3.4% over 43 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -11.5% on a miss
CIEN	Thu Sep 3	before open	$60.7B
Median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
NTAP	Wed Sep 2	after close	$40.6B
Median swing ±5.2% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -7.3% on a miss
CPRT	Thu Sep 3	time not announced	$30.5B
Median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
LULU	Thu Sep 3	after close	$13.6B
Median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss