Morning issues

Eighteen years of first weeks in September, and the worst one lost 3.4%

This is the morning issue of Tuesday, September 1, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the names with the best record for the days ahead.

Overbought / oversold, 28 August 2026

CRM didn't grind its way onto the stretched side of this card; it jumped there, better than 22% in five sessions. It's also the only name on the page whose own history after getting this extended points down rather than sideways, which is the difference between a stock that climbed into overbought and one that got launched into it.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
SEIC	Extreme overbought	100th	$111.63	+1.9%
CRM	Extreme overbought	100th	$256.00	+22.4%
TYL	Extreme overbought	100th	$377.94	+7.8%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CRUS	Extreme oversold	0th	$108.48	-5.9%
DY	Extreme oversold	0th	$294.34	-25.1%
FER	Extreme oversold	0th	$58.73	-6.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
FER	56% · +1.0%	69% · +1.7%	69% · +4.4%	39
It did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows
SEIC	54% · -0.1%	56% · +0.1%	59% · +0.8%	480
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
TYL	50% · -0.1%	53% · +0.2%	59% · +2.0%	491
It kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CRUS	55% · +0.6%	53% · +0.7%	52% · +1.7%	490
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
DY	51% · +0.3%	53% · +0.5%	55% · +2.5%	437
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
CRM	43% · -0.4%	49% · -0.2%	57% · +0.8%	389
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: SEIC, TYL are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 28 August 2026

Four of the seven names here dig metal out of the ground, and every one of them either lost a floor or got turned away at a ceiling in the same session. PAAS is the one carrying a real record behind the event: after it loses that volume shelf, five sessions later it has usually been another 4% lower, which is the unusual case where the break itself meant something rather than being noise with a price tag on it.

PAAS broke below its volume shelf at $55.15 (closed -4.1% through it).

Across 51,906 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
FORM	Broke below round number	$110.00	-7.6%
CIEN	Broke below round number	$400.00	-5.4%
PCG	Got rejected at swing high	$18.44
BVN	Got rejected at swing high	$36.82
SSRM	Got rejected at 52-week high	$39.42
TECK	Got rejected at 52-week high	$71.93

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Accelerating & decelerating, 28 August 2026

MKTX has quietly stopped trading: a three-day average range of about thirty cents on a $162 stock. That is not a trend going quiet, that is a stock holding its breath, and the other half of this card is what the exhale looks like.

Speeding up

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
GAP	2.57×	$23.48	+18.6%
PCG	2.19×	$16.60	-5.7%
CRM	1.97×	$256.00	+22.4%
CRWD	1.81×	$218.40	+13.8%
SNPS	1.62×	$442.61	+11.2%

When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.

Slowing down

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
MKTX	0.12×	$162.72	+0.4%
TECH	0.20×	$72.35	+0.2%
VSH	0.47×	$30.56	-3.4%
ON	0.49×	$72.61	-2.2%
MXL	0.50×	$61.73	-7.3%

When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.

Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.

Best of the day: Sep 1

Nothing has a strong record on Sep 1 itself this year. The five sessions after it belong to Ulta: green in 15 of the last 18 years, and the worst of those eighteen cost 3.4%. The hit rate is the part people quote; the shape of the misses is the part I'd actually want.

ULTA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 1 in our universe since 2008: up 15 of 18 years (83%), with a median move of +4.24% (average +6.89%). Best year +23.7% (2008); worst -3.4% (2019).