Morning issues

Twenty of the last 26 years, the week starting tomorrow has belonged to one chip name

This is the morning issue of Thursday, September 3, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the earnings watchlist and the names with the best record for the days ahead.

Overbought / oversold, 1 September 2026

Salesforce put on 25.5% in five sessions, which is the kind of week you expect from a small-cap after a takeover rumour rather than from one of the biggest software companies in the country. The deflating part is CRM's own record from up here: the three days after it has been stretched this far up its own range have leaned lower more often than not, and whatever comes back only shows up around the one-month mark.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CRM	Extreme overbought	100th	$258.11	+25.5%
TYL	Extreme overbought	99th	$376.43	+7.5%
NTR	Extreme overbought	98th	$77.69	+6.7%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
DY	Extreme oversold	0th	$287.30	-18.3%
FER	Extreme oversold	0th	$57.70	-8.5%
BYD	Extreme oversold	0th	$76.39	-5.8%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
FER	56% · +1.0%	69% · +1.7%	69% · +4.4%	39
It did tend to bounce — higher 65% of the time on average across the three windows
TYL	50% · -0.1%	53% · +0.2%	60% · +2.0%	492
It kept going — higher 54% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
DY	51% · +0.3%	53% · +0.5%	55% · +2.5%	437
It did tend to bounce — higher 53% of the time on average across the three windows
BYD	49% · +0.1%	54% · +0.4%	50% · +1.4%	439
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name
NTR	49% · -0.1%	51% · +0.1%	47% · -0.2%	140
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name
CRM	43% · -0.4%	49% · -0.2%	57% · +0.8%	389
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: TYL is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 1 September 2026

The one worth a second look is TFII, which lost a swing low on Monday and historically does the opposite of what that implies: its median week after breaking that level is +0.51%, better than what the average stock has managed after breaking down. MKSI broke the same kind of level on the same morning and its record runs the other way, which is the whole point of putting these side by side.

TFII broke below a swing low at $133.35 (closed -4.1% through it).

Across 102,285 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
MKSI	Broke below swing low	$256.16	-3.8%
AXTI	Broke below round number	$60.00	-6.5%
AXON	Broke below round number	$550.00	-5.8%
BLDR	Broke below 52-week low	$65.10	-3.5%
SLB	Got rejected at 52-week high	$60.46
WAT	Got rejected at 52-week high	$426.22

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Earnings watchlist, 3 September 2026

Toro reports before the bell today with a beat record most boards would frame, and the market has never once paid up for it: the good quarters move the stock a rounding error, while the rare miss has cost a median 5.6%. Everything that happens in that name happens on one tail.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
ORCL	Tue Sep 8	time not announced	$434B
Median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss
CIEN	Thu Sep 3	before open	$60.7B
Median swing ±8.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.8% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss
CASY	Tue Sep 8	after close	$31.3B
Median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss
CPRT	Thu Sep 3	time not announced	$30.5B
Median swing ±3.4% over 107 reports; typically +0.7% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
COO	Wed Sep 9	after close	$14.9B
Median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
LULU	Thu Sep 3	after close	$13.6B
Median swing ±8.2% over 76 reports; typically +3.8% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss
AVAV	Wed Sep 9	after close	$9.8B
Median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss
TTC	Thu Sep 3	before open	$9.5B
Median swing ±3.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.3% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss
KT	Fri Sep 4	time not announced	$9.1B
Median swing ±0.9% over 65 reports; typically -0.4% on a beat, -0.1% on a miss
CPB	Thu Sep 3	before open	$6.8B
Median swing ±2.3% over 107 reports; typically +0.6% on a beat, -3.9% on a miss

Best of the day: Sep 3

Today's date came up empty, and the stretch that starts tomorrow belongs to Micron, green in 20 of the last 26 years. It's a memory-chip stock, so the bad ones are properly bad, a double-digit loss inside five sessions back in 2000, and the best year still cleared that comfortably.

MU has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 3 in our universe since 2000: up 20 of 26 years (77%), with a median move of +2.95% (average +3.14%). Best year +26.6% (2011); worst -16.7% (2000).