It's at the top of its year — and it's lost money in eight of the last ten

AXON owns the date and the shape of its record is the boring kind, which on a one-day stat is exactly what you want: it wins a lot and it has never really hurt anybody on Sep 4. The week-ahead name is a different animal wearing a similar hit rate, because MU wins roughly three out of four Septembers and still managed to drop almost twenty percent in one of them. A hit rate tells you how often a name has worked, and nothing about how much a single bad year can cost.

The one I'd sit with is AXTI popping up off its volume shelf: on its own prior bounces from that kind of level it was higher five days later better than nine times in ten, which is not a base rate, that's the stock's own history. Read the downside breaks the other way round. TSN's own record after cracking a swing low goes nowhere over the next week, and the only reason the number next to it looks cheerful is that the all-stocks figure for this event type drifts up. When a name's own record and the generic one disagree, the name's is the one worth having.

ADBE is the line that stops you: it apparently goes up more when it misses than when it beats. The catch is that it has missed three times in a hundred-plus quarters, so that is three data points wearing a median's clothes, and what the row really tells you is that Adobe almost never misses. If you want an actual mover this week, the widest report-day swing on the list belongs to AVAV.

MKTX is the most stretched name on the board and also a stock that has finished lower in eight of the last ten years, which is normally the worst pairing there is: names with that record tend to hand an overbought week straight back. Its own visits to this extreme did the opposite and kept grinding higher for a month afterward, so the stock's record and the group's record are openly disagreeing. And then there's CRM, sitting at the top of its own year in this block while being the one name whose calendar record clears the floor for next week two blocks up.