It has gone UP on the quarters it missed. It reports Thursday.
This is the morning issue of Saturday, September 5, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the earnings watchlist.
Best of the day: Sep 5
September 5th itself has no owner, so the week that starts tomorrow is where the record actually lives. Salesforce is the one I'd sit with, because it's the smooth one of the four: its worst trip through these seven days is shallower than anything the other three have on their sheets. F5 wins the week about as often and got there by surviving a September that went very badly wrong, which is the same label on a completely different ride.
Nothing stands out for Sep 5. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 6 – Sep 12, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 77% | +2.39% | 22 yrs |
| BIDU | 76% | +2.25% | 21 yrs |
| FFIV | 77% | +1.80% | 26 yrs |
| TIGO | 80% | +1.67% | 15 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Key levels, 4 September 2026
FICO is the one with history sitting behind it. Every other time it has cut through one of its own swing lows, it was trading higher five days later just under 60% of the time, better than the average break-down in the database, so this particular flavor of ugly is somewhere the stock has been before and come back from. SNOW slipping under a round 350 is the one with nothing in its record to like.
LULU broke below a swing low at $114.69 (closed -12.3% through it).
Across 102,335 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | Broke below swing low | $1015.00 | -8.2% |
| ADSK | Broke below volume shelf | $237.46 | -8.2% |
| TSLA | Broke below round number | $375.00 | -5.6% |
| SNOW | Broke below round number | $350.00 | -3.7% |
| FLR | Got rejected at swing high | $57.93 | |
| MSFT | Got rejected at swing high | $512.76 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Accelerating & decelerating, 4 September 2026
Most of what's moving fast here is moving down, which is the usual shape of these lists: LULU and FICO show up wide because they're falling, not because anything good is happening to them. AGCO is the exception, up 17.6% in five sessions and clearing the $130 round on the way, and that is what acceleration looks like when it's the fun kind.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| LULU | 2.12× | $100.61 | -16.7% |
| SNOW | 1.91× | $337.18 | +2.8% |
| FICO | 1.78× | $932.26 | -19.2% |
| PFG | 1.70× | $116.68 | +5.5% |
| AGCO | 1.58× | $133.40 | +17.6% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.19× | $163.38 | +0.4% |
| TECH | 0.26× | $72.43 | +0.1% |
| IRDM | 0.46× | $47.21 | +1.3% |
| AMKR | 0.47× | $47.77 | -0.1% |
| RMBS | 0.47× | $85.46 | -0.3% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Earnings watchlist, 5 September 2026
Adobe has the cleanest beat record on this page by a mile and the market pays it 1.1% for the trouble, the smallest reward of anyone reporting. The good stuff is in the column nobody gets to use: on the rare quarter Adobe has missed, the stock went up anyway.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Ticker | Reports | When | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | Tue Sep 8 | time not announced | $434B |
| Median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss | |||
| ADBE | Thu Sep 10 | after close | $105B |
| Median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss | |||
| KR | Fri Sep 11 | before open | $34.5B |
| Median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss | |||
| CASY | Tue Sep 8 | after close | $31.3B |
| Median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss | |||
| COO | Wed Sep 9 | after close | $14.9B |
| Median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss | |||
| AVAV | Wed Sep 9 | after close | $9.8B |
| Median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss | |||
| DSGX | Thu Sep 10 | after close | $6.7B |
| Median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss | |||
| M | Thu Sep 10 | before open | $6.2B |
| Median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss | |||
The letter is free by email. Claim the free candlestick guide below and the letter comes with it.
Send me the free guide: Highest Performing Candlestick Patterns
Try the Candlestick Pattern Scanner free
James H
Your Friendly Neighborhood Trading Nerd
