One of the market's wildest names has lost this week exactly once since 2010

This is the morning issue of Sunday, September 6, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the earnings watchlist, the options radar and where money has been rotating between sectors.

Share

Best of the day: Sep 6

Tesla grades out neutral over the last ten years, which is a polite way of saying it goes up about as often as it goes down, and then this one week on the calendar shows up and the thing behaves itself. The worst that week has ever done to it is a 4.6% dip, which for a stock that routinely moves that much before lunch is the part worth sitting with. It walks in soft this year, having lost the $375 round on Friday.

TSLA has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 6 in our universe since 2010: up 15 of 16 years (94%), with a median move of +4.59% (average +5.34%). Best year +17.9% (2020); worst -4.6% (2016).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Sep 7 – Sep 13, year after year:

TickerHit rateMedianSample
TSLA94%+3.98%16 yrs
HBM76%+3.67%17 yrs
CASY77%+2.05%26 yrs
BRKR77%+1.78%26 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Earnings watchlist, 6 September 2026

The two right-hand columns are the whole card: a beat on these names buys you a percent or two, and a miss takes four or five straight back out, with Kroger the least forgiving of the group at -5.6%. Adobe is the exception that isn't really one, since it has essentially stopped missing at all, and the handful of times it did the stock went up anyway.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

TickerReportsWhenMarket cap
ORCLTue Sep 8time not announced$434B
Median swing ±4.3% over 107 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -4.0% on a miss
ADBEThu Sep 10after close$105B
Median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.1% on a beat, +3.9% on a miss
KRFri Sep 11before open$34.5B
Median swing ±4.3% over 106 reports; typically +2.0% on a beat, -5.6% on a miss
CASYTue Sep 8after close$31.3B
Median swing ±3.9% over 107 reports; typically +2.3% on a beat, -3.4% on a miss
COOWed Sep 9after close$14.9B
Median swing ±4.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
AVAVWed Sep 9after close$9.8B
Median swing ±7.8% over 78 reports; typically +4.3% on a beat, -5.2% on a miss
DSGXThu Sep 10after close$6.7B
Median swing ±3.8% over 106 reports; typically +2.1% on a beat, -0.4% on a miss
MThu Sep 10before open$6.2B
Median swing ±3.6% over 106 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -4.5% on a miss

Options radar: AVGO

Broadcom's options are priced at exactly what the stock has already been doing, implied vol and the last month of realized sitting right on top of each other, and implied is at the bottom of the range we have marks for. That is what a stock in a box does to its own option chain: turned away at $375 in late August, then held up at $350 last week.

AVGO options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 21 sessions (ATM implied vol 36%, which is 1.00× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.

Sector rotation, 4 September 2026

The index has been flat for a month, up 0.21%, so these relative numbers are close to the actual ones: energy did nearly all of the moving while everything else took September off. Health care is the quieter story, out front on the three-month look as well, and industrials are the group being sold in both windows.

Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:

Sector3-mo vs SPY1-mo vs SPY
1XLV Health Care+7.8+4.0
2XLE Energy+7.2+9.9
3XLF Financial+6.8+0.3
4XLK Technology-0.7+0.8
5XLB Materials-0.7+0.3
6XLP Consumer Staples-2.6-0.8
7XLI Industrial-3.8-5.3
8XLC Communication Services-4.1+0.6
9XLY Consumer Discretionary-4.4-2.9
10XLRE Real Estate-5.6-2.2
11XLU Utilities-6.9-0.9

The letter is free by email. Claim the free candlestick guide below and the letter comes with it.

Send me the free guide: Highest Performing Candlestick Patterns

Try the Candlestick Pattern Scanner free

James H

Your Friendly Neighborhood Trading Nerd

Research and education only, not investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss, and past performance, including backtests, does not guarantee future results. C311 LLC d/b/a The Traders Lab, 6375 Penn Ave, Ste B PMB 1260, Pittsburgh, PA 15206.