One stock got knocked back from its 52-week high yesterday. That's historically been the good news.
This is the morning issue of Thursday, September 17, 2026, and it covers the levels that broke or held, the most overbought and oversold names, the names with the best record for the days ahead and the stocks speeding up and slowing down.
Key levels, 16 September 2026
CNC is the odd one on this card. Everything else fell through something; CNC pushed up into its 52-week high, two days after clearing a swing high, and got turned away there. That knockback has historically been the friendly event for this name rather than the warning, a +1.24% median five days later while the average stock rejected at a yearly high goes roughly nowhere. Read the WYNN line with one caveat in mind: that record is what followed a fresh break of a yearly low, and yesterday's was its second break in five sessions, which is a different animal.
NOVT broke below a swing low at $138.43 (closed -4.1% through it).
Across 102,567 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJF | Broke below swing low | $168.93 | -2.6% |
| COP | Broke below round number | $140.00 | -5.3% |
| JBHT | Broke below round number | $250.00 | -5.3% |
| WYNN | Broke below 52-week low | $86.58 | -2.7% |
| STLA | Broke below 52-week low | $5.05 | -2.6% |
| CNC | Got rejected at 52-week high | $69.63 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Overbought / oversold, 16 September 2026
The pairing is the story on the beaten-up side: NNN and ADC are effectively the same trade, two net-lease REITs that each dropped 5.6% in the same week and hit the floor of their own yearly range on the same day. When one corner of the market shows up twice on a three-name list, it's the corner being sold, not two separate ideas. TJX is its own thing and a quieter one, down on price with nobody else from the group beside it.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 99th | $145.73 | +17.7% |
| META | Extreme overbought | 99th | $673.31 | +3.0% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 98th | $45.18 | +1.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | Extreme oversold | 0th | $122.84 | -2.6% |
| NNN | Extreme oversold | 0th | $41.65 | -5.6% |
| ADC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $68.50 | -5.6% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 56% · +0.3% | 60% · +0.6% | 62% · +1.6% | 456 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| NNN | 56% · +0.3% | 56% · +0.5% | 63% · +1.4% | 449 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ADC | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.5% | 458 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| META | 52% · +0.5% | 51% · +0.6% | 66% · +3.3% | 228 |
| It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 48% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 427 |
| It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| RVTY | 49% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 57% · +1.3% | 455 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Best of the day: Sep 17
Nothing in the Sep 18–24 window cleared the floor this year, so today's date is the whole board. The fun part of BMRN is the mismatch: our quality screen has it down as a loser, one winning year in the last ten, and it still turns up green on September 17th almost every year on file. Only two of those years were red, and the deeper of the two is the worst number printed below.
BMRN has the strongest typical showing for Sep 17 in our universe since 2001: up 16 of 18 years (89%), with a median move of +1.65% (average +2.15%). Best year +10.4% (2001); worst -1.9% (2007).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The seasonal board is quiet for Sep 18 – Sep 24.
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Accelerating & decelerating, 16 September 2026
Four of the five names picking up speed are picking it up on the way down, and the one exception, RVTY, is the same name sitting at the top of the overbought list an inch up the page. Don't read the other column as calm, either: SNDK is down 13.8% on the week and still qualifies, because what's shrinking is the size of the daily swing and not the direction of it.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT | 1.84× | $236.73 | -11.6% |
| SWKS | 1.80× | $85.59 | +11.8% |
| USB | 1.73× | $59.73 | -3.8% |
| COP | 1.62× | $132.54 | -2.9% |
| RVTY | 1.61× | $145.73 | +17.7% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.21× | $163.35 | +0.1% |
| TECH | 0.34× | $72.33 | +0.1% |
| FRHC | 0.52× | $163.86 | +0.9% |
| MYRG | 0.62× | $275.37 | -4.0% |
| SNDK | 0.63× | $1519.97 | -13.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
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Your Friendly Neighborhood Trading Nerd