The options market has NVDA priced as a calm stock. It's been moving at a 45% clip.
This is the morning issue of Sunday, September 20, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the options radar.
Overbought / oversold, 18 September 2026
Read the two ends of this card together and it stops being about individual stocks: the hot side is refiners, the washed-out side is REITs, and that is just the sector map showing up one name at a time. Energy has beaten the S&P by 18% over the last three months while real estate is the weakest group of the last month, so VLO turning up here again is the group doing its thing rather than the stock refusing to quit.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | Extreme overbought | 99th | $424.89 | +7.3% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 99th | $45.90 | +2.3% |
| VLO | Extreme overbought | 98th | $413.28 | +5.9% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $68.05 | -4.5% |
| NNN | Extreme oversold | 0th | $41.55 | -5.3% |
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $37.81 | -5.2% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 59% · +0.4% | 58% · +0.8% | 63% · +2.3% | 489 |
| It kept going — higher 60% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| NNN | 56% · +0.3% | 56% · +0.5% | 63% · +1.4% | 449 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ADC | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.5% | 458 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MPC | 54% · +0.4% | 59% · +1.0% | 59% · +2.3% | 288 |
| It kept going — higher 58% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MGM | 53% · +0.3% | 55% · +0.7% | 55% · +1.5% | 496 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: VLO, MPC, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Key levels, 18 September 2026
Almost everything on this card is a breakdown or a rejection lower. STRL is the exception, and it is the one with the record worth knowing: it got turned back up at the 500 round for the second time in five sessions, and the last time it bounced off a round number, September 10 at 475, the next five sessions paid 4.30%.
FAF broke below a swing low at $71.22 (closed -2.3% through it).
Across 102,630 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEN | Broke below round number | $80.00 | -4.5% |
| ALKS | Broke below round number | $45.00 | -3.6% |
| CLF | Got rejected at swing high | $12.85 | |
| DELL | Got rejected at 52-week high | $593.98 | |
| NET | Got rejected at 52-week high | $336.90 | |
| STRL | Bounced off round number | $500.00 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Accelerating & decelerating, 18 September 2026
I'll admit MKTX amuses me here: a bond-trading venue whose daily range has shrunk to roughly a fifth of normal, in the back half of September, which is not usually when that business naps. The other end of the card is the same signal pointed the other way, with AN down double digits in five sessions and its range still widening, so that one isn't finished telling you what it is.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNRC | 1.78× | $207.44 | +10.9% |
| AN | 1.68× | $168.29 | -17.4% |
| SWKS | 1.51× | $88.76 | +0.5% |
| ILMN | 1.50× | $239.62 | +16.1% |
| CHT | 1.47× | $45.90 | +2.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.21× | $163.42 | +0.3% |
| TECH | 0.36× | $72.37 | +0.3% |
| FRHC | 0.50× | $164.48 | -0.6% |
| NTES | 0.52× | $116.19 | +0.5% |
| EIX | 0.55× | $55.31 | -1.2% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Options radar: NVDA
The option market has NVDA priced as a calm stock at the very bottom of its implied-vol range, while the stock itself has spent the last month swinging at a 45% clip. What cheap implied does mechanically is simple: anyone selling NVDA premium right now is collecting less than the stock has actually been moving, and anyone buying an option is paying for less movement than they have been getting.
NVDA options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 35 sessions (ATM implied vol 30%, which is 0.65× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
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