Morning issues

Only one sector beat the market last month, and everything that got sold is one trade

This is the morning issue of Thursday, September 24, 2026, and it covers the levels that broke or held, the most overbought and oversold names, the earnings watchlist and where money has been rotating between sectors.

Key levels, 23 September 2026

Most of this card is the sort of thing you can argue either way. PB is the exception: it's the one break whose own history after losing a swing low leans higher a week later, and it had already bounced off this exact level on the 16th and fallen 4.4% anyway. The level is doing real work on that stock, just not in the direction the word "breakdown" implies.

DB broke below a swing low at $37.53 (closed -4.4% through it).

Across 102,756 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
PB	Broke below swing low	$69.20	-2.8%
PAYX	Broke below round number	$110.00	-5.0%
EGO	Broke below round number	$45.00	-4.8%
MCD	Broke below 52-week low	$246.52	-3.3%
SPOT	Bounced off volume shelf	$487.85
BBY	Got rejected at 52-week high	$95.85

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Overbought / oversold, 23 September 2026

Two net-lease REITs and a utility sitting at the bottom of their own trailing year is one trade wearing three tickers: anything priced off long rates. The sector table further down says the same thing with utilities more than 17% behind the S&P over three months, so what's worth watching here is the bond market rather than the RSI reading.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
CHT	Extreme overbought	100th	$46.20	+2.3%
META	Extreme overbought	99th	$744.10	+10.5%
NICE	Extreme overbought	98th	$117.79	+11.7%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
ADC	Extreme oversold	0th	$67.12	-2.0%
O	Extreme oversold	0th	$55.61	-2.7%
DTE	Extreme oversold	0th	$122.89	-5.1%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
DTE	59% · +0.2%	57% · +0.3%	64% · +1.4%	451
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
O	56% · +0.5%	58% · +0.7%	64% · +2.2%	472
It did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows
ADC	57% · +0.4%	57% · +0.5%	58% · +1.5%	459
It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows
META	52% · +0.5%	51% · +0.6%	66% · +3.3%	228
It kept going — higher 56% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
CHT	47% · -0.0%	54% · +0.2%	64% · +1.0%	428
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
NICE	48% · -0.1%	48% · -0.1%	51% · -0.2%	483
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: META, CHT are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Earnings watchlist, 24 September 2026

Micron is the odd one on this list: it beats far more often than it misses, and the median reaction to a beat has still been a down day. When good news is worth a red close, the quarter was never the thing anyone was trading.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
MU	Wed Sep 30	after close	$1.03T
Median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
COST	Thu Sep 24	after close	$426B
Median swing ±1.4% over 95 reports; typically +0.1% on a beat, -1.3% on a miss
CCL	Tue Sep 29	before open	$38.5B
Median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
JBL	Wed Sep 30	before open	$38.0B
Median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss
DRI	Thu Sep 24	before open	$25.6B
Median swing ±3.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -3.8% on a miss
SNX	Thu Sep 24	before open	$20.7B
Median swing ±5.8% over 91 reports; typically +1.2% on a beat, -5.5% on a miss
JEF	Mon Sep 28	after close	$11.2B
Median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
FDS	Wed Sep 30	before open	$10.1B
Median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
KMX	Tue Sep 29	before open	$8.3B
Median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss
CAG	Wed Sep 30	before open	$7.5B
Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.6% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss

Sector rotation, 23 September 2026

Exactly one sector beat the index over the last month, and it did it by a little under eight points while the other ten all lost ground. Everything that pays you a dividend is stacked at the bottom of the list, which is the same story the washed-out names told two blocks up.

Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:

	Sector	3-mo vs SPY	1-mo vs SPY
1	XLE Energy	+11.7	-1.7
2	XLV Health Care	+5.4	-3.9
3	XLK Technology	+2.0	+7.9
4	XLC Communication Services	+0.9	-0.4
5	XLF Financial	-3.2	-6.9
6	XLB Materials	-6.4	-6.7
7	XLP Consumer Staples	-7.1	-6.3
8	XLY Consumer Discretionary	-8.6	-7.0
9	XLI Industrial	-10.3	-5.5
10	XLRE Real Estate	-10.7	-8.3
11	XLU Utilities	-17.4	-8.6