Morning issues

One of them fell 13.8% in five sessions. The other one has the record.

This is the morning issue of Saturday, September 26, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the earnings watchlist.

Overbought / oversold, 25 September 2026

MGM had to fall 13.8% in a week to get onto this list, and its own record after getting this washed out is a coin flip, so the size of the drop is doing more talking than the history is. ORI is the opposite shape: nothing much happens for a week, then it's higher a month later about two times in three, which is the boring way to get paid. And CHT, sitting at the hot end of the card, has historically been fine a month after looking this stretched.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
DHR	Extreme overbought	99th	$224.49	+6.0%
RVTY	Extreme overbought	98th	$151.11	+5.3%
CHT	Extreme overbought	97th	$46.15	+0.5%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
MGM	Extreme oversold	0th	$32.58	-13.8%
TXRH	Extreme oversold	0th	$159.75	-4.7%
ORI	Extreme oversold	0th	$37.74	-5.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
TXRH	61% · +1.0%	60% · +1.3%	58% · +2.2%	400
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
ORI	55% · +0.2%	56% · +0.4%	69% · +2.9%	435
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
CHT	47% · -0.0%	54% · +0.2%	64% · +1.0%	428
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
MGM	53% · +0.2%	54% · +0.7%	54% · +1.4%	498
It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows
RVTY	50% · +0.1%	52% · +0.3%	58% · +1.5%	459
It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
DHR	46% · -0.3%	48% · -0.3%	54% · +0.1%	506
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: CHT, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 25 September 2026

The line with a record behind it is AIR rather than GIS: when AIR has broken down through a round number before, it has tended to be higher five days later, which is the opposite of how a breakdown is supposed to read. It's been wrestling with $120 all month, rejected there on the 17th and then up 7.5% over the next five sessions, and yesterday it cut straight through.

GIS broke below a round number at $35.00 (closed -3.9% through it).

Across 190,947 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
AIR	Broke below round number	$120.00	-3.2%
AKAM	Got rejected at swing high	$127.04
CLS	Got rejected at swing high	$378.99
OMC	Bounced off volume shelf	$73.70
HPE	Got rejected at 52-week high	$65.48
FRHC	Got rejected at 52-week high	$177.50

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Accelerating & decelerating, 25 September 2026

GEN again: down 25.5% in five sessions, with its three-day range now running near double its own monthly normal. This is a company that has closed more of the last ten years red than green, so the violence isn't out of character, it's just all arriving at once.

Speeding up

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
SNX	2.14×	$263.03	-1.2%
MGM	1.92×	$32.58	-13.8%
GEN	1.88×	$21.62	-25.5%
AKAM	1.76×	$113.94	+9.0%
UGP	1.52×	$7.10	-6.3%

When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.

Slowing down

Ticker	Short vs Long ATR	Close	Last 5 Days
TECH	0.30×	$72.61	+0.3%
MKTX	0.33×	$164.19	+0.5%
EIX	0.48×	$52.65	-4.8%
MKSI	0.53×	$260.82	+3.5%
NVMI	0.55×	$368.23	+3.4%

When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.

Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.

Earnings watchlist, 26 September 2026

Micron prints Wednesday night carrying the one line on this card with the sign backwards: the typical reaction to a quarter it beat has been -1.2%. Beating hasn't been the good outcome here, and for a trillion-dollar company that is a strange thing to have stayed true for as long as it has.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
MU	Wed Sep 30	after close	$1.03T
Median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
ACN	Thu Oct 1	before open	$108B
Median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
NKE	Thu Oct 1	after close	$60.4B
Median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss
CCL	Tue Sep 29	before open	$38.5B
Median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
JBL	Wed Sep 30	before open	$38.0B
Median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss
MKC	Thu Oct 1	before open	$14.7B
Median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss
JEF	Mon Sep 28	after close	$11.2B
Median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
AYI	Thu Oct 1	before open	$10.7B
Median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss
FDS	Wed Sep 30	before open	$10.1B
Median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
KMX	Tue Sep 29	before open	$8.3B
Median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss