Morning issues

It beats most quarters. The stock falls anyway, and it reports Wednesday night.

This is the morning issue of Sunday, September 27, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the levels that broke or held, the names with the best record for the days ahead and the earnings watchlist.

Overbought / oversold, 25 September 2026

MGM had to fall 13.8% in five sessions to earn the top of the oversold column, which is the kind of drop that feels like it has to mean something, and then its own history after readings like this comes back a coin flip three days later. The other side of the card is the more useful lesson today: CHT is the most stretched name on the board, and the longer you've waited after a reading like that, the better it has done, so the label has been describing strength rather than marking a top.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
DHR	Extreme overbought	99th	$224.49	+6.0%
RVTY	Extreme overbought	98th	$151.11	+5.3%
CHT	Extreme overbought	97th	$46.15	+0.5%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
MGM	Extreme oversold	0th	$32.58	-13.8%
TXRH	Extreme oversold	0th	$159.75	-4.7%
ORI	Extreme oversold	0th	$37.74	-5.5%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
TXRH	61% · +1.0%	60% · +1.3%	58% · +2.2%	400
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
ORI	55% · +0.2%	56% · +0.4%	69% · +2.9%	435
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
CHT	47% · -0.0%	54% · +0.2%	64% · +1.0%	428
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
MGM	53% · +0.2%	54% · +0.7%	54% · +1.4%	498
It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows
RVTY	50% · +0.1%	52% · +0.3%	58% · +1.5%	459
It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
DHR	46% · -0.3%	48% · -0.3%	54% · +0.1%	506
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: CHT, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Key levels, 25 September 2026

AIR is the line worth reading here. It has spent the month wrestling with $120, got knocked back from that same level on Sep 17, and then ran 7.5% over the following five sessions. Its record after cracking a round number is the strongest thing on this card, and it points up, which is the opposite of what the words "break down" promise.

GIS broke below a round number at $35.00 (closed -3.9% through it).

Across 190,947 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.

Also at a level

Ticker	What happened	Level	Closed through
AIR	Broke below round number	$120.00	-3.2%
AKAM	Got rejected at swing high	$127.04
CLS	Got rejected at swing high	$378.99
OMC	Bounced off volume shelf	$73.70
HPE	Got rejected at 52-week high	$65.48
FRHC	Got rejected at 52-week high	$177.50

The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.

Best of the day: Sep 27

OII's Sep 27 record is clean partly because the day is quiet: its worst one ever cost 2.3%, and a date that never moves much in either direction is a small idea even when it wins most of the time. The week ahead has exactly one name clearing the floor, ACN, and ACN reports on Oct 1, right in the middle of that window. A calendar record with an earnings print sitting inside it is mostly a record of the print.

OII has the strongest typical showing for Sep 27 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 19 years (79%), with a median move of +1.18% (average +1.01%). Best year +4.8% (2000); worst -2.3% (2011).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Sep 28 – Oct 4, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
ACN	76%	+2.00%	25 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Earnings watchlist, 27 September 2026

MU is the biggest company on this list and the strangest row on it. It beats far more often than it misses, and the median reaction to a beat has still been a loss of 1.2%. Good news has been mildly expensive and bad news worse, which tells you the print has never been the thing being traded.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
MU	Wed Sep 30	after close	$1.03T
Median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
ACN	Thu Oct 1	before open	$108B
Median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
NKE	Thu Oct 1	after close	$60.4B
Median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss
CCL	Tue Sep 29	before open	$38.5B
Median swing ±4.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.2% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
JBL	Wed Sep 30	before open	$38.0B
Median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss
MKC	Thu Oct 1	before open	$14.7B
Median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss
JEF	Mon Sep 28	after close	$11.2B
Median swing ±2.0% over 100 reports; typically -0.3% on a beat, +0.1% on a miss
AYI	Thu Oct 1	before open	$10.7B
Median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss
FDS	Wed Sep 30	before open	$10.1B
Median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
KMX	Tue Sep 29	before open	$8.3B
Median swing ±6.3% over 107 reports; typically +2.8% on a beat, -7.1% on a miss