One name broke $120 on Friday. Its own history says that's when it goes up.
This is the morning issue of Monday, September 28, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held and the options radar.
Overbought / oversold, 25 September 2026
Danaher lands on the extreme overbought list with an RSI of 68.9, which on most charts is a quiet Tuesday. The ranking runs against each stock's own trailing year, so a name that has been asleep gets flagged on a move that would be ignored anywhere else, and what followed for DHR historically is a small drift lower rather than anything violent. The genuinely hot name on this card, the one up near the top of the RSI scale, is also the one whose record says it kept climbing.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHR | Extreme overbought | 99th | $224.49 | +6.0% |
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 98th | $151.11 | +5.3% |
| CHT | Extreme overbought | 97th | $46.15 | +0.5% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $32.58 | -13.8% |
| TXRH | Extreme oversold | 0th | $159.75 | -4.7% |
| ORI | Extreme oversold | 0th | $37.74 | -5.5% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 61% · +1.0% | 60% · +1.3% | 58% · +2.2% | 400 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| ORI | 55% · +0.2% | 56% · +0.4% | 69% · +2.9% | 435 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| CHT | 47% · -0.0% | 54% · +0.2% | 64% · +1.0% | 428 |
| It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MGM | 53% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.4% | 498 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| RVTY | 50% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| DHR | 46% · -0.3% | 48% · -0.3% | 54% · +0.1% | 506 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: CHT, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Best of the day: Sep 28
Copa and Global Payments get to roughly the same 2% median week by completely different roads: Copa's record carries a 12% hole from 2008, while the worst week Global Payments has had here since 2001 is down 5.01%. The other one worth noticing is Wesco, where a single calendar day has historically been worth almost as much as Global Payments' entire week.
WCC has the strongest typical showing for Sep 28 in our universe since 2000: up 15 of 18 years (83%), with a median move of +1.78% (average +1.24%). Best year +8.6% (2007); worst -6.8% (2011).
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Sep 29 – Oct 5, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPA | 80% | +2.77% | 20 yrs |
| GPN | 76% | +2.09% | 25 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Key levels, 25 September 2026
AIR lost the $120 round on Friday, which sounds like the bad news, and for most stocks it is: across the whole database the five days after a round-number breakdown come to about 0.42%. AIR is the odd one out on this card, running a +1.13% median over those same five days after its own round-number breaks, and the last level it dealt with was a bounce up off $110 the week before that paid about 2.9% over the following five sessions.
GIS broke below a round number at $35.00 (closed -3.9% through it).
Across 190,947 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | Broke below round number | $120.00 | -3.2% |
| AKAM | Got rejected at swing high | $127.04 | |
| CLS | Got rejected at swing high | $378.99 | |
| OMC | Bounced off volume shelf | $73.70 | |
| HPE | Got rejected at 52-week high | $65.48 | |
| FRHC | Got rejected at 52-week high | $177.50 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Options radar: TSLA
TSLA premium is at the very top of its year, and the stock is moving almost exactly as much as the options say it should: about seven tenths of a point separates what's priced from what's being delivered. No earnings date inside the week to account for it either, so this is expensive by the calendar rather than by the setup.
TSLA options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 43 sessions (ATM implied vol 45%, which is 1.02× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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