Only one name in the whole book has a standout record for next week, and it isn't American

This is the morning issue of Tuesday, September 29, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the most overbought and oversold names, the options radar and where money has been rotating between sectors.

Share

Best of the day: Sep 29

Nothing on the board for today itself, and exactly one name in the entire universe has a standout record for the seven days that follow: Itaú, the Brazilian bank ADR. An earnings report has never once landed inside this window for it, so what you're looking at is a calendar record rather than two decades of quarterly reactions wearing a date. Its worst year here is 2008, and that same week took Bradesco down 20.29%, which tells you it was Brazil having the week, not Itaú.

ITUB has the strongest typical showing over the next 5 trading sessions from Sep 29 in our universe since 2002: up 19 of 24 years (79%), with a median move of +4.41% (average +4.57%). Best year +26.7% (2021); worst -19.2% (2008).

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Sep 30 – Oct 6, year after year:

TickerHit rateMedianSample
ITUB79%+4.41%24 yrs
CRM82%+2.37%22 yrs
CPA80%+2.35%20 yrs
CMI77%+2.24%26 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Overbought / oversold, 28 September 2026

Third session running that MGM has been the most washed-out name on the list, and the hole is still getting deeper, down 17.7% in five days now. The record hanging off that reading is the unremarkable part: its forward odds sit close to a coin flip in every window, about where BYD's do. Texas Roadhouse is the one here with any real tilt to it.

Most overbought

TickerLevelRSI PercentileCloseLast 5 Days
DHRExtreme overbought100th$227.33+5.3%
MTDExtreme overbought99th$1545.26+8.0%
RVTYExtreme overbought98th$151.02+5.2%

Most oversold

TickerLevelRSI PercentileCloseLast 5 Days
MGMExtreme oversold0th$31.86-17.7%
TXRHExtreme oversold0th$158.45-4.3%
BYDExtreme oversold0th$69.19-4.7%

What's happened after this before

TickerNext 3 DaysNext 7 DaysNext 30 DaysPrior Times
TXRH61% · +1.0%60% · +1.3%58% · +2.2%400
It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows
MGM53% · +0.2%54% · +0.7%54% · +1.4%499
It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows
RVTY50% · +0.1%52% · +0.3%58% · +1.5%459
It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
MTD48% · +0.1%53% · +0.1%55% · +1.2%480
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name
BYD49% · +0.0%54% · +0.4%50% · +1.3%445
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name
DHR46% · -0.3%48% · -0.3%54% · +0.1%506
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: RVTY is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Options radar: TSLA

TSLA options are at the most expensive point of their year, which reads like a gift for sellers right up until you check what the stock is actually doing: 43.9% annualized movement over the last month, which is very nearly what the options are charging. Top-of-the-range premium buys you almost no cushion over the movement TSLA is already delivering, and the shares have been turned back at the same swing high near $384 three sessions in a row, so the range holding is doing more work in that trade than the vol number is.

TSLA options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 44 sessions (ATM implied vol 45%, which is 1.04× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.

Sector rotation, 28 September 2026

Energy still sits on top of the three-month board by 13 points, and over the last month that lead has gone essentially nowhere, so the handoff has already happened rather than being something to wait for. Tech is the only sector beating SPY by a margin worth the name right now, and it's doing it in a month when SPY itself is red. Everything below the top four is losing on both clocks, with utilities in last place twice over.

Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:

Sector3-mo vs SPY1-mo vs SPY
1XLE Energy+13.0+0.8
2XLV Health Care+3.4+0.7
3XLK Technology+1.5+3.7
4XLC Communication Services-0.2+0.6
5XLF Financial-2.3-5.6
6XLP Consumer Staples-5.4-2.2
7XLB Materials-5.5-6.2
8XLY Consumer Discretionary-10.3-5.3
9XLRE Real Estate-10.8-6.2
10XLI Industrial-11.0-4.9
11XLU Utilities-17.7-8.0

The letter is free by email. Claim the free candlestick guide below and the letter comes with it.

Send me the free guide: Highest Performing Candlestick Patterns

Try the Candlestick Pattern Scanner free

James H

Your Friendly Neighborhood Trading Nerd

Research and education only, not investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss, and past performance, including backtests, does not guarantee future results. C311 LLC d/b/a The Traders Lab, 6375 Penn Ave, Ste B PMB 1260, Pittsburgh, PA 15206.