It beats twice as often as it misses, and a beat is still a red day. It reports tonight.
This is the morning issue of Wednesday, September 30, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the earnings watchlist, the stocks speeding up and slowing down and the options radar.
Overbought / oversold, 29 September 2026
Being this beaten up only pays if the company is worth owning, and that's the split on this card. MGM is the most wrecked name on it and also the weakest business of the three, with three up years in the last ten, while the steakhouse is the one whose own washouts have historically been bought rather than continued.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVTY | Extreme overbought | 99th | $152.77 | +6.6% |
| MTD | Extreme overbought | 98th | $1537.33 | +3.1% |
| DHR | Extreme overbought | 98th | $226.11 | +2.3% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | Extreme oversold | 0th | $31.52 | -19.0% |
| BYD | Extreme oversold | 0th | $67.08 | -6.9% |
| TXRH | Extreme oversold | 0th | $157.21 | -5.4% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 61% · +1.0% | 60% · +1.3% | 58% · +2.2% | 400 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 60% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| MGM | 52% · +0.2% | 54% · +0.7% | 54% · +1.3% | 500 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| RVTY | 50% · +0.1% | 52% · +0.3% | 58% · +1.5% | 459 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| MTD | 48% · +0.1% | 53% · +0.1% | 55% · +1.2% | 480 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| BYD | 49% · +0.0% | 54% · +0.4% | 50% · +1.3% | 446 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| DHR | 46% · -0.3% | 48% · -0.3% | 54% · +0.1% | 506 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: RVTY is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Earnings watchlist, 30 September 2026
Micron beats twice as often as it misses and the typical reaction to a beat is a red day of about -1.2%, which tells you the print isn't what the tape is grading tonight. The quieter item on the list is Accenture: the CEO, the CFO and the rest of the C-suite bought stock on the same August day, and they report tomorrow before the open.
The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:
| Ticker | Reports | When | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Wed Sep 30 | after close | $1.03T |
| Median swing ±4.8% over 107 reports; typically -1.2% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss | |||
| ACN | Thu Oct 1 | before open | $108B |
| Median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss | |||
| NKE | Thu Oct 1 | after close | $60.4B |
| Median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss | |||
| JBL | Wed Sep 30 | before open | $38.0B |
| Median swing ±6.5% over 107 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -2.0% on a miss | |||
| STZ | Tue Oct 6 | after close | $23.8B |
| Median swing ±3.5% over 107 reports; typically +1.4% on a beat, -3.6% on a miss | |||
| MKC | Thu Oct 1 | before open | $14.7B |
| Median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss | |||
| RPM | Tue Oct 6 | before open | $14.5B |
| Median swing ±2.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -1.5% on a miss | |||
| AYI | Thu Oct 1 | before open | $10.7B |
| Median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss | |||
| FDS | Wed Sep 30 | before open | $10.1B |
| Median swing ±4.2% over 107 reports; typically +1.0% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss | |||
| CAG | Wed Sep 30 | before open | $7.5B |
| Median swing ±2.0% over 107 reports; typically +0.6% on a beat, -1.6% on a miss | |||
Accelerating & decelerating, 29 September 2026
The accelerating side of this card isn't excitement this week, it's damage. FICO has broken down through a level almost every session for a week and a half, two separate 52-week lows among them, and then the $800 round went as well. Carnival is the rare name on that list where the volatility showed up with a gain attached.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | 1.82× | $617.87 | -32.4% |
| KMX | 1.81× | $59.23 | +4.2% |
| CCL | 1.72× | $25.11 | +12.7% |
| JSM | 1.62× | $16.64 | -5.7% |
| POR | 1.59× | $44.49 | -5.0% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 0.26× | $163.96 | +0.3% |
| TECH | 0.34× | $72.38 | -0.2% |
| WBD | 0.45× | $30.85 | +0.1% |
| BIDU | 0.54× | $86.71 | -6.2% |
| VSH | 0.55× | $32.46 | -2.1% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Options radar: MSFT
MSFT options are as expensive as they have been at any point in the past year, and yet the stock's actual movement over the last month has nearly kept pace with what those options are charging for, so the premium is rich by the calendar and close to fair against the tape. It got there on a day the stock got turned away at $500.
MSFT options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 45 sessions (ATM implied vol 27%, which is 1.07× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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