Morning issues

A beat here is worth half a percent. A miss has cost six.

This is the morning issue of Thursday, October 1, 2026, and it covers the most overbought and oversold names, the names with the best record for the days ahead, the earnings watchlist and where money has been rotating between sectors.

Overbought / oversold, 30 September 2026

Realty Income is the odd one here: it printed its most beaten-up reading of the year after falling under 2% in a week, which is what a slow bleed looks like on a chart that never actually panicked. MGM is still the most washed-out name on the board, same as it has been all week, and its own history after drops like this is a mild drift higher rather than the sharp rebound a fall that size seems to promise.

Most overbought

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
RVTY	Extreme overbought	99th	$152.89	+7.6%
ILMN	Extreme overbought	96th	$273.68	+7.2%
WBD	Overbought	94th	$30.95	+0.6%

Most oversold

Ticker	Level	RSI Percentile	Close	Last 5 Days
MGM	Extreme oversold	0th	$31.05	-18.0%
O	Extreme oversold	0th	$54.30	-1.9%
BYD	Extreme oversold	0th	$66.57	-7.2%

What's happened after this before

Ticker	Next 3 Days	Next 7 Days	Next 30 Days	Prior Times
O	56% · +0.5%	58% · +0.7%	64% · +2.2%	474
It did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows
ILMN	55% · +0.6%	53% · +0.6%	57% · +1.9%	465
It kept going — higher 55% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
MGM	52% · +0.2%	54% · +0.7%	54% · +1.3%	500
It did tend to bounce — higher 54% of the time on average across the three windows
RVTY	50% · +0.1%	52% · +0.3%	58% · +1.5%	459
It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name
WBD	52% · +0.2%	51% · +0.1%	52% · +0.9%	391
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name
BYD	49% · +0.0%	54% · +0.4%	50% · +1.3%	446
A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name

Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.

Worth sitting with: ILMN, RVTY are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.

The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.

Best of the day: Oct 1

Nothing clears for October 1 itself; Dillard's came closest and still missed the floor. The week that starts tomorrow is where the names live, and Copa is the one with a temper, since the same seven sessions that carry most of its record took a quarter off the stock in 2008.

Nothing stands out for Oct 1. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.

The Seasonal Watchlist

The names that have owned Oct 2 – Oct 8, year after year:

Ticker	Hit rate	Median	Sample
APO	80%	+2.63%	15 yrs
CPA	80%	+2.63%	20 yrs
CP	77%	+2.30%	26 yrs

The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.

Earnings watchlist, 1 October 2026

McCormick is the lopsided one on this list: a beat has been worth about half a percent and a miss has cost almost six. That is what it looks like when a company is expected to deliver and the only real news it can make is bad news.

The biggest names reporting in the next 7 days — and what each has typically done on report day:

Ticker	Reports	When	Market cap
ACN	Thu Oct 1	before open	$108B
Median swing ±4.8% over 100 reports; typically +1.6% on a beat, -2.3% on a miss
NKE	Thu Oct 1	after close	$60.4B
Median swing ±4.7% over 107 reports; typically +1.8% on a beat, -5.1% on a miss
STZ	Tue Oct 6	after close	$23.8B
Median swing ±3.5% over 107 reports; typically +1.4% on a beat, -3.6% on a miss
MKC	Thu Oct 1	before open	$14.7B
Median swing ±2.6% over 107 reports; typically +0.5% on a beat, -5.8% on a miss
RPM	Tue Oct 6	before open	$14.5B
Median swing ±2.4% over 107 reports; typically +1.3% on a beat, -1.5% on a miss
AYI	Thu Oct 1	before open	$10.7B
Median swing ±5.5% over 99 reports; typically +2.9% on a beat, -4.9% on a miss

Sector rotation, 30 September 2026

Tech is the only sector that did anything against SPY last month, up 5.4 points on an index that went nowhere, while financials, materials, real estate and discretionary each gave up six or seven. Energy still owns the quarter by a wide margin and the soft month barely scratched a lead that size.

Where money has been rotating — the eleven sectors ranked against the S&P 500 over three months:

	Sector	3-mo vs SPY	1-mo vs SPY
1	XLE Energy	+14.6	-2.9
2	XLV Health Care	+3.5	-0.5
3	XLK Technology	+3.1	+5.4
4	XLC Communication Services	-1.1	+0.2
5	XLF Financial	-4.7	-6.8
6	XLP Consumer Staples	-5.1	-4.2
7	XLB Materials	-6.6	-6.8
8	XLRE Real Estate	-9.1	-6.2
9	XLY Consumer Discretionary	-10.1	-6.1
10	XLI Industrial	-11.2	-4.1
11	XLU Utilities	-13.8	-5.6