Defending that floor cost 5.26% in a week. Thursday it broke anyway.
This is the morning issue of Sunday, October 4, 2026, and it covers the levels that broke or held, the stocks speeding up and slowing down, the most overbought and oversold names and the options radar.
Key levels, 2 October 2026
Nike is the line worth sitting with. Buyers defended that 52-week floor twice in late September, and the second attempt, on Sep 25, was 5.26% underwater a week later. The floor gave way Thursday, and the thing that doesn't match the mood around it is that the break is the event with the fattest twenty-day forward number of any level type on this card, while defending the level has been the losing side of it the whole way down.
STX broke below a round number at $950.00 (closed -10.6% through it).
Across 191,251 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 53% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| MORN | Broke below round number | $190.00 | -3.4% |
| DSGX | Got rejected at swing high | $82.65 | |
| NKE | Broke below 52-week low | $35.02 | -3.3% |
| TIGO | Bounced off volume shelf | $84.77 | |
| NYT | Bounced off round number | $60.00 | |
| DINO | Bounced off round number | $110.00 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Accelerating & decelerating, 2 October 2026
Range tells you how big the moves are and nothing at all about which way they go, which is how Nike and Accenture end up on the same side of this list after a week that treated the two of them very differently. Accenture is the one I keep going back to: it sits at the top of the accelerating column, and back on August 5 eight of its officers, the CEO and CFO among them, bought stock on the same day. Small buys, every one of them, but eight people don't usually file on the same morning by accident.
Speeding up
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | 2.02× | $198.90 | +12.9% |
| JSM | 1.70× | $16.72 | -3.4% |
| QGEN | 1.64× | $44.75 | +1.3% |
| SNPS | 1.62× | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| NKE | 1.52× | $33.87 | -5.3% |
When stocks are speeding up, check the options pricing. Cheap options on stocks that are accelerating create a directional edge.
Slowing down
| Ticker | Short vs Long ATR | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBD | 0.26× | $30.94 | +0.3% |
| MKTX | 0.29× | $164.14 | 0.0% |
| TECH | 0.35× | $72.40 | -0.3% |
| SIMO | 0.55× | $280.50 | +1.5% |
| NVO | 0.55× | $37.32 | -3.8% |
When stocks are slowing down, check the options pricing. Expensive options on slowing stocks create an income edge.
Short vs long ATR = 3-day against 27-day average true range; above 1× the daily ranges are widening, below 1× they're compressing.
Overbought / oversold, 2 October 2026
The washed-out side this morning is two mortgage REITs and a timber REIT, so what you're looking at is one rate trade wearing three costumes rather than three separate ideas. Where they part company is in their own records at this reading: the mortgage pair has leaned positive from here, while Weyerhaeuser at the same reading has been a coin flip three days out, which is an odd thing for a name that just fell this hard in a week.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS | Extreme overbought | 98th | $489.90 | +15.1% |
| MTRN | Extreme overbought | 98th | $312.16 | +17.8% |
| TSM | Extreme overbought | 98th | $472.78 | +4.9% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.50 | -6.7% |
| AGNC | Extreme oversold | 0th | $8.79 | -7.4% |
| WY | Extreme oversold | 0th | $18.47 | -7.7% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC | 59% · +0.3% | 57% · +0.2% | 62% · +1.1% | 299 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 59% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| NLY | 57% · +0.4% | 57% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.2% | 472 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 58% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SNPS | 49% · -0.2% | 53% · -0.1% | 57% · +0.7% | 466 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| WY | 48% · -0.3% | 51% · -0.1% | 58% · +1.2% | 442 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| MTRN | 49% · +0.2% | 52% · +0.5% | 50% · +0.8% | 466 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
| TSM | 45% · -0.3% | 47% · -0.2% | 58% · +1.0% | 524 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SNPS is on this list for being at an extreme, and its own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Options radar: NVDA
Implied vol on Nvidia is pinned at the bottom of its range and sits within spitting distance of what the stock has actually been doing day to day, which is the market charging close to nothing for whatever comes next. The practical read is the unglamorous one: selling premium on Nvidia pays the least it has paid anywhere in this sample, and owning a move in either direction has rarely been cheaper to put on.
NVDA options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 0th percentile of their own last 49 sessions (ATM implied vol 28%, which is 1.15× what the stock has actually been moving). Cheap options on one name are worth a look if you were already watching it.
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