A software name just went up 40% in a week. The overbought tag is the boring part.
This is the morning issue of Wednesday, October 7, 2026, and it covers the names with the best record for the days ahead, the levels that broke or held, the most overbought and oversold names and the options radar.
Best of the day: Oct 7
October 7th itself has nothing to give you. The strongest name on this date since 2008 has gone up in exactly half of its years, which makes it a coin rather than a date, and the rest of the list is worse. The seven days starting tomorrow are the part of this card worth reading, and the two names holding the record are a chip-equipment maker and a Mexican airport operator, which is not a pair anyone would put together on purpose.
Nothing stands out for Oct 7. Quiet dates happen; the next loud one is never far.
The Seasonal Watchlist
The names that have owned Oct 8 – Oct 14, year after year:
| Ticker | Hit rate | Median | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 77% | +2.68% | 26 yrs |
| PAC | 80% | +2.50% | 20 yrs |
The Seasonal Board ranks every qualifying name for the month, each with its own window.
Key levels, 6 October 2026
Most of this card is stocks falling through levels and carrying on falling, which is the boring version of the story. ICLR is the one I'd sit with: it got pushed back from its old high, which normally reads as a stock being told no, except its own history after that exact rejection has it a little higher a week later about two times in three. That is a lean and not a law, and it is still the best record on the page.
CHRW broke below a swing low at $140.64 (closed -4.0% through it).
Across 103,080 prior times a stock did this, it was higher five sessions later 54% of the time — the move through the level has not been the direction to follow.
Also at a level
| Ticker | What happened | Level | Closed through |
|---|---|---|---|
| WFG | Broke below swing low | $65.26 | -3.0% |
| RGEN | Broke below round number | $190.00 | -8.0% |
| CAMT | Broke below round number | $160.00 | -3.4% |
| ICLR | Got rejected at swing high | $177.50 | |
| TX | Got rejected at swing high | $58.73 | |
| ILMN | Got rejected at 52-week high | $296.25 |
The Levels Map carries every name being tested right now, not just this one.
Overbought / oversold, 6 October 2026
PTC is on this card because it went up 40% in five days, and when a software company does that, the cause is something that happened at the company, not something an indicator spotted. The run is the thing to look at; the label on it is not, because overbought on its own has never been a reason to bet against a stock, and the typical name wearing it goes nowhere at all over the following week.
Most overbought
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTC | Extreme overbought | 100th | $193.00 | +40.3% |
| SBS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $6.41 | +23.7% |
| SNPS | Extreme overbought | 100th | $505.17 | +21.7% |
Most oversold
| Ticker | Level | RSI Percentile | Close | Last 5 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STWD | Extreme oversold | 0th | $12.93 | -6.8% |
| HR | Extreme oversold | 0th | $17.04 | -5.0% |
| FLG | Extreme oversold | 0th | $11.56 | -2.4% |
What's happened after this before
| Ticker | Next 3 Days | Next 7 Days | Next 30 Days | Prior Times |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STWD | 55% · -0.0% | 61% · +0.1% | 67% · +1.3% | 294 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 61% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| HR | 54% · +0.3% | 58% · +0.5% | 59% · +1.2% | 479 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 57% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| FLG | 56% · +0.5% | 56% · +0.7% | 56% · +1.5% | 468 |
| It did tend to bounce — higher 56% of the time on average across the three windows | ||||
| SNPS | 49% · -0.2% | 53% · -0.1% | 57% · +0.7% | 466 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| PTC | 49% · -0.3% | 51% · +0.1% | 59% · +1.0% | 475 |
| It kept going — higher 53% of the time, so "overbought" has not meant due to fall for this name | ||||
| SBS | 48% · -0.2% | 49% · -0.2% | 55% · +1.1% | 457 |
| A coin flip — this level has told you nothing about this name | ||||
Each cell: how often the stock was higher, and its average move, every prior time it hit this level. Under the hood the windows are 3, 5 and 20 trading sessions. The line under each name is what that record says.
Worth sitting with: SNPS, PTC are on this list for being at an extreme, and their own history says the extreme has not been the thing to trade against.
The Levels Map gives you the whole board: every name at an extreme, with where it stalls.
Options radar: MSFT
Nobody has paid this much for Microsoft options in a year. Implied vol is sitting at 33.9% while the stock itself has been moving a good deal calmer than that, and the gap between what the options cost and what the shares have actually been doing is the whole of what this card says. It is a price observation about today, and the record of what came next is not something this card carries.
MSFT options are the day's outlier: pricing at the 100th percentile of their own last 52 sessions (ATM implied vol 34%, which is 1.60× what the stock has actually been moving). Rich options on one name are sellers' territory, if the story fits.
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